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Flattening the Curve: COVID-19

As of 2nd April 2020, lessons from Taiwan, Canada, South Korea and Georgia show that the coronavirus can be slowed down. Taiwan and South Korea have been signalled as relative success stories for flattening the curve before infection rates soared.

Flattening the curve does not necessarily mean seeing a decrease in total cases right away; it would first produce a decline in the number of new cases, which should result in fewer hospitalizations and death in the weeks that follow.  By flattening the curve, officials hope to ensure that the health care system doesn’t become overwhelmed and unable to help those who need it

Early response to crisis
Taiwan recorded its first case of the coronavirus on Jan. 21, but managed to keep its number of confirmed cases to 329 with five deaths. As soon as news broke about a mysterious illness in Wuhan, Taiwan, which is 100 miles from mainland China, began inspecting travellers coming from the city on 31st December.

“. . . a system to track those in self-quarantine . . . ”

They set up a system to track those in self-quarantine, and ramped up production of medical equipment in January. They attribute their ‘flattening of the curve’ to an early and effective response to the crisis.

Brilliant infrastructure
Canada managed to roll out an expansive infrastructure to conduct tests and contact tracing. Canada has a well-funded public health care system, and its criteria for who can be tested for COVID-19 is their attributes to ‘flattening of the curve’.  Catching cases early, and investigating their origins helped Canada to manage the virus.

Success without lockdowns
South Korea, which had one of the largest initial outbreaks outside China, also managed to slow the spread of new coronavirus cases without instituting any lockdowns. The country’s exemplary model for mass diagnostic testing was the only way to contain the outbreak.

“. . . model that pays of . . . ”

South Korea, with a population of 51 million, tests more than 20,000 people daily at designated testing sites and uses isolation and widespread contact tracing to break chains of transmission. They attribute their ‘flattening of the curve’ to using recommendations from the World Health Organisations’ model that pays off in reducing the spread.

Big success in small Georgia
The early response of the country of Georgia, despite its small size and struggling economy is their credit to ‘flattening the curve’. They began taking serious measures at the end of February, including closing schools and conducting widespread diagnostic tests. Georgia has so far confirmed 117 cases and no deaths from COVID-19.

A drop in daily cases for two consecutive days
Italy has been under a nationwide lockdown for about four weeks and has begun to flatten the curve. Italy hit its apparent peak in daily cases on March 20, with more than 6,000 new cases that day. On March 29 and 30, Italy saw a drop in daily cases for two consecutive days.  Since then, the number of daily cases has stayed between 4,000 and about 4,800. When looking at the growth of the virus over time in Italy, it appears the curve is flattening.

 “. . . appears the curve is flattening . . .

Spain is starting to flatten the curve
Spain has been in lockdown since March 15, they have more confirmed cases than Italy, with over 135,000. A peak in daily cases occurred on the March 24, with more than 9,000 cases reported that day. However, the daily increase has continued to drop in recent days. Starting on April 1, Spain saw a drop in daily cases for four consecutive days.

“. . . drop in daily cases for four consecutive days . . .

Efforts in France are actually working
France has been in lockdown since March 17.  The growth of the virus has been steady, except for a spike on April 3, which could have been caused by new reporting measures. Last week, the country also saw a spike in deaths after the health ministry began including nursing home fatalities in its data. After April 3, the number of daily cases dropped substantially, with just about 3,000 new cases on April 4. If this steady number of daily cases continues, the country will flatten its curve. 

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Our planet takes a break during Covid-19 Lockdowns

While the world copes with COVID-19, we take a moment to share some environment changes that are taking place on our planet.

Venice
The ancient city of Venice has transformed almost overnight; under sunny blue skies, a look down into the waters of the canals is a surprising sight, you see a clear view of the sandy bed, seabirds, seaweed, shoals of tiny fish, scuttling crabs and colourful plant-life. The water is blue, clear and calm like a pond, the ducks are happily making nests and laying eggs.

New York
New York’s air is also cleaner; it’s the cleanest residents have seen for years. Researchers have found that there has been a 5 to 10% drop in air pollutants like carbon dioxide and methane emissions have also dropped significantly.

China
China, is experiencing a remarkable transformation.  The bright, blue smog-free skies are a sight not seen in years.  Researchers are reporting reductions in air pollution with ‘good quality air days’ increasing by 21.5% in February.  Satellite images show a dramatic reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions released by vehicles, power plants and industrial facilities.  There is a marked drop in coal consumption; major coal-fired power stations saw a 36% drop in consumption between February and March.

Earth
Around the world, seismologists are observing a lot less ambient seismic noise, this means less vibrations generated by cars, trains, buses and people going about their daily lives. In the absence of that noise, earth’s upper crust is moving a little less.

Brussels
Brussels is seeing about a 30% to 50% reduction in ambient seismic noise since middle March, the time the country started implementing school and business closures and other social distancing measures, the level is on par with what is seen on Christmas Day.

London
The noise in West London has been affected, showing a decline of noise in the period after schools and social venues in the United Kingdom closed and again after a government lockdown was announced.  This indicates evidence that people are listening to authorities’ warnings to stay inside and minimize outside activity as much as possible; everyone is respecting the rules.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, the surreal slowdown of life as we know it has presented researchers and scientists with a rare opportunity to study the modern world under bizarre conditions.

In agreement, from around the world researchers agree on four points; there’s less rumbling on the surface of the earth, there’s less air pollution, city soundscapes are changing and the oceans are quitter too.

Like most species, we agree that less pollution is a real welcome!

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Humanity Comes Together for Vaccine

Developing a vaccine or a treatment for a newly discovered virus is a slow and detailed endeavour. The coronavirus has changed that. From Asia to Europe, North America, and Africa, infectious disease experts are trialling vaccines, developing new tests for the virus or devising innovative public health strategies to control the outbreak.  A global race to search for a coronavirus vaccine is underway.  We take a look at a few countries working flat-out to save us from the pandemic.

China
In China, where doctors and scientists played pivotal roles in alerting the world about what would come to be called Covid-19, few deserve more credit for sounding the alarm than Ai Fen, head of the emergency department at Wuhan Central Hospital. On 30th December, she received a lab report on a patient with unexplained pneumonia. She immediately notified her superiors and began warning fellow doctors to take precautions, she sent screenshots of the report to her old medical school classmates. While Ai was putting fellow doctors on alert, researchers in Shanghai led by Zhang Yongzhen were studying a specimen from a patient from Wuhan with an unexplained fever. Zhang’s team concluded the specimen was a novel coronavirus.

” . . . from around the world
pounced on the puzzle.”

With this release, infectious disease experts from around the world pounced on the puzzle in a rush to understand how quickly this new virus might spread.

Britain
In Britain, as soon as the Shanghai scientists released the genetic sequence for the virus, several researchers responded to a call from the World Health Organization to propose methodologies for developing vaccines. Researchers are working around the clock to develop plans to eliminate the coronavirus.

United States of America
In the United States, scientists are closely watching clinical trials led by Andre Kalil, a physician specializing in pneumonia. The trial, with more than 100 patients at dozens of hospitals, will yield initial results in a week or so. As soon as Kalil saw the reports about coronavirus in China, he and his team began investigating potential therapies and offering real science trials.

Senegal
In Senegal, an infectious disease expert Mr Sall began hearing about the mysterious pneumonia in China.  Sall has been working 18-hour days with colleagues from across Africa since 27 February when he heard Nigeria confirmed the first case in sub-Saharan Africa and four days later when Senegal reported its first infection.

“results in 10 minutes”

With a partner in Britain, Sall is developing a test for Covid-19 that can yield results in as little as 10 minutes.

Singapore
In Singapore, coronavirus testing is among the most aggressive. As of last week, Singapore had conducted more than 39,000 tests. Singapore can administer more than 2,000 tests daily and is working to expand that. Patients who show symptoms are quarantined before they transmit the disease. Singapore’s tactic of aggressively testing while tracing and isolating has worked because they have a dedicated place to quarantine patients.

Recovery from Covid-19
What the world has observed is that the vast majority of people who catch Covid-19 will make a complete recovery; 184,965 people have recovered globally from the coronavirus (as at 1 April 2020).

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